Just to address some of the things brought up on the other thread:
The explanation I have heard on the M-4 that makes the most sense is as the gas port erodes, the bolt is still unlocking(unlocking sooner because the bolt carrier pressurizes quicker) while under substantial residual pressure and this loads the lugs in torsion instead of compression. As the lugs were not designed to endure a twisting motion, this tends to break the two weakest lugs first, the ones beside the extractor.
The rifle length does not suffer from port erosion, the port is further down the barrel and the gas tube is longer for the trip back too with more volume to pressurize at a much lower pressure. It takes several milliseconds longer for unlocking to begin and residual pressure has dropped almost to nil before the bolt begins to open.
The gas from the port has to travel from the port to the bolt carrier cavity. The time it take depends on the size of the port, the diameter of the gas tube and the distance it has to travel. For a rifle length with a standard diameter port it takes about one milliseconds to built to maximum pressure and the carrier doesn’t start to move any appreciable distance (0.050") for another millisecond. By this time the pressure in the chamber is low enough that the bolt thrust is less than the piston thrust and the bolt is actually being pushed into the chamber. On a rifle the peak pressure in the carrier cavity occurs about a millisecond after shot ejection.
In a carbine length gas system, the time to peak pressure is only about .75 that of a rifle, but the cavity pressure tends to be higher, especially if you are running a 16" barrel. The bolt is still essentially unloaded at time of unlocking, but the bolt velocity is higher.
When the gas port erodes and all of them do, the carbines do it faster because of the high pressure and hotter temperature gas, the flow through the port becomes more efficient, and the times decrease and the pressures increase. You will never have much bolt load at the time of unlocking because the time to get the gas back to the cavity, even with an eroded carbine gas tube, is still very large compared to the when the P-T curve starts to drop.
The bolt velocity causes a majority of the problems.
As to why the Army is just now noticing an increase in bolt failures is related to the 1999 change to the ammunition specifications raising the average maximum chamber pressure of M855 Ball and M856 Tracer from 55,000 psi to 58,700 psi and the absolute maximum from 61,000 psi to 64,700 psi.