Yes, I alluded to that earlier. I don’t know if this is Trump being a nutter, Bolton pushing his wet dream, or if this was a calculated attempt to get a bump in the polls. Either way, I’m not sending my sons into another endless foreign war.
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Why do you think it was by mistake? Why do you think it wasn’t done intentionally to provoke the Iranians? It’s not like it would be the first time the US has intentionally violated the airspace or territorial waters of a foreign, potentially hostile country - to include Iran.
More on why Trump changed his mind mid-stream:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-21/trump-backs-down-military-strike-iran-last-minute
"President Obama made a desperate and terrible deal with Iran - Gave them 150 Billion Dollars plus I.8 Billion Dollars in CASH! Iran was in big trouble and he bailed them out. Gave them a free path to Nuclear Weapons, and SOON. Instead of saying thank you, Iran yelled ‘Death to America’.
I terminated deal, which was not even ratified by Congress, and imposed strong sanctions. They are a much weakened nation today than at the beginning of my Presidency, when they were causing major problems throughout the Middle East. Now they are Bust!
On Monday they shot down an unmanned drone flying in International Waters. We were cocked & loaded to retaliate last night on 3 different sights when I asked, how many will die. 150 people, sir, was the answer from a General.
10 minutes before the strike I stopped it, not proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone.
I am in no hurry, our Military is rebuilt, new, and ready to go, by far the best in the world. Sanctions are biting & more added last night. Iran can NEVER have Nuclear Weapons, not against the USA, and not against the WORLD!"
Glenn Beck this morning seemed to think the game of chicken was a deliberate calculated move to show the Iranians he can attack them anytime he wants to, yet simultaneously show the American public that he’s not a warmonger who is eager to go to war.
My take: I don’t know the Islamic/Persian mindset, but I’m afraid this will be interpreted as weakness.
Meanwhile, here’s one reason I say this “could” eventually escalate into World War 3:
last month the Iranian Parliament’s vice-speaker Ali Motahhari specifically threatened this sort of an attack…
Mr Motahhari told FARS news agency: ‘The US military forces’ deployment in the Persian Gulf is more of the nature of psychological warfare. They are not ready for a war, specially when Israel is within our range.’
Today, Iran possesses a highly sophisticated missile arsenal, and some of those missiles are capable of hitting targets up to 2,500 kilometers away. For an in-depth examination of Iranian missile capabilities, I would commend a National Interest article entitled “Iran Has Amassed the Largest Ballistic Missile Force in the Middle East”.
Of course if Iran starts firing missiles at Israel, it is inevitable that Israel will start firing missiles back at Iran. And in such a scenario it is unthinkable that Iran’s proxy Hezbollah would sit quietly on the sidelines.
Remember the 1991 Gulf War, where President George H.W. Bush built a coalition of Arab states allied against Saddam Hussein? Several of those states, including IIRC Saudi Arabia, stated openly that if Israel joined the war, they would switch sides and attack Israel. Of course, Saddam then took every opportunity to lob scud missiles into Israel to try to goad them into attacking.
In the modern era, I realize that the political alliances in the Middle East are not exactly as they were in 1991. Saudi Arabia, for example, has actually softened its stance toward Israel, but others, notably Turkey, have ratched up the rhetoric against the Jewish State.
My take: Only the names have changed. If we attack Iran, Iran will attack Israel, and the Islamic states allied against Israel will quickly join the war on the side of Iran. Because a wider conflict will no doubt threaten oil supplies, Europe will have to get involved. This will most likely cause China and Russia to get involved.
Yes, maybe none of it will happen, but I say it could, as do other people looking at the situation.
Even Nancy Pelosi says the information on the drone being over international waters is rock-solid. This thing was shot down illegally. I think it’s more likely an act by the IRGC on its own than the Iranian government, but Iran made that bed so it owns the consequences.
We didn’t go to war and I doubt the intent was ever really to carry out the reprisals. We made a calculated demonstration of force/resolve. It’s chess, not checkers.
We know that the Russians have GPS spoofing capabilities. It’s probably a safe assumption that Iran does too.
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I read that it was a Global Hawk that was shot down which is in the range of a 100 million dollar drone and around the size of a 737(or at least the wing span of one). That is probably why the FAA banned US carriers from the area.
I don’t want to go to war over a drone, even if it was in international air space but we should blow something up or stuxnet something of equal value for good measure.
Latest thing it looks like a trigger-happy local “tactical commander” (per source) rather than a sanctioned event, and leadership is pissed because they are afraid it’s going to lead to something bigger.
When I was there, we used to do it pretty much every night. It was SOP.
Not saying we were doing that with this Global Hawk, but our GPS nav systems are pretty accurate and I doubt we’d “accidentally” enter their airspace.
The next question is one you’re unlikely to see thrown about. Does Iran have the capability to hijack a Global Hawk?
IRG assets in Syria, a little pressure on anyone working with them on oil, and some other asymmetrical events. A little fire in one of their oil transport facilities. More weapons deals for The Ukraine to get the Russians to focus closer to home.
Not an issue for that type of drone. INS (Inertial nav), etc.
I’m not sure why were you even wasting time over this… for that particular area there’s no need to cross international boundaries. And if we need surveillance that those couldn’t do it wouldn’t be something Iranians could shoot down.
it’s also silly to me that some distinguish between the revolutionary guard and Iran itself.
even if they are not a proxy of the Iranian government it’s on Iran that they allow them to function. It would be like the USMC doing some action and the US saying “sorry it’s the Marines, you know how they are”.
What’s amazing to me (but not really), this how the press (and some here) is spinning this versus the rational statement from Trump regarding the actual events and that he held back.
Here’s the deal: even if Iran was able to shut down the straights (unlikely), gas prices would go up, hugely in Europe, somewhat here.
It’s pretty clear who the bad guy would be. You would see consumer pressure to address the issue.
the idea of free transit in international waters has to be preserved. I think even the Euros understand that.
I’m pretty happy the POTUS called it off even though I’d dare say some hawkish members of the Cabinet were already banging the war drum. (Here’s looking at you Bolton) I’d bet we’ll eventually do what needs to be done in retaliation.
Having said that to say this, I get all kinds of tired of the ignorance by the “representatives” of the people.
Democrats, meanwhile, expressed concern about the president’s handling of the Iranian threat, and said that Congress must be consulted on any hostilities.
“The president seems to suggest that he found out about, apparently, the death toll if they had gone through with the strike moments before they conducted the strike. Isn’t that something you think he should have known about beforehand?” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., told reporters, before urging Trump to “take a deep breath and de-escalate.”
Her stupid ass has been screeching about “de-escalation!” for days now and when the President decides retaliation isn’t the best course, she goes full potato with snide remarks instead of being supportive of what she wanted in the first place.
The only way she can say something good about Trump is to say something bad about him. You have to have your gold colored glasses on to see the difference. 
I’m semi aware of what that drone is capable of. Its basically a Global Hawk, but setup a bit differently, from what I gather. We’ve been flying Global Hawk’s since the late 90’s.
But the sensor packages are capable of seeing WELL inside the borders of a country from WELL outside of its borders. That was my only point. There was/is no purpose to fly this asset over a country unless its like Russia where your sensor package needs to be flown further than 100-200-XXX miles inland of the border.
I remember watching a documentary on the first Gulf war and talking about the RC135 stuff and they would circle the country and inhale all of the electronic signals, surface scan radar, etc… and within a few weeks then knew almost everything about Iraq without ever having flown over it… and that was in 90-91…
Not questioning your point at all. We are on the same page. You will probably agree that neither of us know what our capabilities really are.
All the wars since WWII have been the result of a political agenda more than a legitimate threat or attack.
The Persian Gulf War was pretty necessary. Saddam had no intention of staying in Kuwait; he wanted pretty much the entire Middle East and wanted to drive Israel into the sea. He, and many “experts” believed that to be a real possibility, and believed that Iraq was a match for the West. And we remembered what happened when we let a dictator march into a neighboring country 50 years prior. We were going to go to war with Saddam at some point or another and everyone knew it.
I’d also say that OEF was pretty justified and obviously was the result of a direct attack. We let politics clog things up over time in Afghanistan, but the original reason for the war was more than understandable.
But for Iran, I would say, if they fire on any US personnel or manned crafts in international waters or airspace, it’s on. But I think Iran knows that and is going to avoid it. They don’t want a war with us, especially when it’s clear that they started it.
Saddam couldn’t defeat Iran during eight years of war. Saddam spent most of that war losing to Iran. This with the support of the US, USSR, France, and most of the rest of the Middle-East. And nobody supporting Iran. I don’t think he could have realistically believed that his forces were a match for the West.
I was more just saying that it’s possible. I doubt they could do much, especially to that platform, but it is a real capability.
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Yes, and I had a typo, was not referring to you wasting time, meant us (the US).
+1. I like the way you think (referring to this post as well as “the cost of doing business” post).