Are We About to Go to War with Iran?

General General Discussion
1

I’d been wanting to do a thread on this for several days, but this seemed to present the best opportunity:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-08/brink-apocalyptic-war-iran-and-most-americans-dont-seem-care

This is the closest that the U.S. has been to a war with Iran in decades, and yet most Americans are either clueless or they don’t seem to believe that it could actually happen

And I certainly don’t think that President Trump wants a war, but he is surrounded by war hawks that have been pushing an extremely aggressive “get tough” policy with Iran. The Trump administration just canceled the waivers that were allowing other nations to continue purchasing Iranian oil, and the goal of that move is to reduce Iranian exports to zero. But oil exports are 40 percent of the Iranian economy, and the Iranians understand that this move could absolutely cripple their economy. The Iranians have threatened to close the straight of Hormuz in retaliation, and that would almost certainly provoke a U.S. military response. In addition, it is being reported that on Wednesday the Iranians will announce that they are taking steps to restart their nuclear program…

On Wednesday, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is expected to announce small steps to resume his country’s nuclear program. According to the New York Times, that will include conducting research on centrifuges that can make nuclear fuel, and curbing nuclear inspections from observers.

Of course the truth is that the Iranians never fully abandoned their nuclear program in the first place, but that is supposed to be a big secret.

In any event, tensions between the U.S. and Iran have now reached frightening levels.

On Sunday, White House National Security Adviser John Bolton announced that the USS Abraham Lincoln and four B-52 bombers are being sent to the Middle East as a message to Iran…

Four B-52 Stratofortress bombers are being sent to the Mideast to support the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln in moves aimed at countering threats from Iran, U.S. Central Command said Tuesday.

The B-52s, from Barksdale Air Force Base, Louisiana, are deploying to Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, a hub for U.S. air operations in the region, CBS News reported.

Apparently there was some intelligence which indicated that Iran was planning a possible attack on U.S. forces in the region, and Bolton said that these deployments would make it very clear that any assault would be “met with unrelenting force”…

The deployments would “send a clear and unmistakable message to the Iranian regime that any attack on United States’ interests, or on those of our allies, will be met with unrelenting force,” he said in a statement. “The United States is not seeking war with the Iranian regime, but we are fully prepared to respond to any attack, whether by proxy, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or regular Iranian forces.”

In response, the Iranians accused the U.S. of engaging in a form of “psychological warfare”.

In addition to everything else, CNN is reporting that it appears that the Iranians have been “moving short-range ballistic missiles aboard boats in the Persian Gulf”, and this has deeply alarmed U.S. officials…

Intelligence showing that Iran is likely moving short-range ballistic missiles aboard boats in the Persian Gulf was one of the critical reasons the US decided to move an aircraft carrier strike group and B-52 bombers into the region, according to several US officials with direct knowledge of the situation.

The concerns over the movement of the missiles was one of multiple threads of intelligence from various sources that led the US to believe Iran had a capability and intention to launch strikes against US targets.

…we could be soon engaged in a conflict that could literally spark World War 3.

While they are certainly no match for the U.S., the truth is that the Iranian military is quite strong, and they possess weapons of immense destructive power. And in the event of a military conflict with the U.S., the Iranians have already said that they will hit Israel too.

And if Israel gets hit, they will certainly strike back at Iran extremely hard.

The Iranians absolutely hate both the United States and Israel, and recent moves by the Trump administration have pushed the Iranians into a corner.

A cornered animal is extremely dangerous, and at this point the Iranians may feel as if the only option they have left is to lash out.

As a first step, they could potentially close the Strait of Hormuz, and that would instantly create a global oil crisis.

My take: Things definitely appear to be escalating but I will defer to people with more knowledge than I have as to whether this is genuinely the brink of war or if it’s more of the brinksmanship we have witnessed over the years.

2

Would we really be fighting a war with Iran? China, Russia, the true enemy?

3

Look here…this shit with Iran, N. Korea, China, Russia and all the other trouble makers has been kicked down the road for decades. SHOULD HAVE been dealt with during the Clinton years. Theyve let them grow now to be a big enough threat. But, if we…America…continue to kick it down the road, we are truly in for some serious serious shit soon. SOMETHING HAS TO BE DONE, & FAST.
I dont know what that something is…Im just a poor old country boy…but America & its allies WILL SUFFER badly if we continue to just do nothing.
I am willing to suffer to get rid of the threats that have hung over our heads since the eighties, if not earlier.

4

I think that you have folks in place who would like nothing more than to kick off a war with Iran, Bolton for example.

5

Yes, I used to really like Bolton, but I think he masturbates to reports of enemy incursions at the present.

6

Same thing happened in 2011/12. Iran CLOSED the Straits of Hormuz. I was on the USS Pearl Harbor, as we (our WestPac/MEU), along with a carrier group and sub escorts, opened it back up by pushing right through their little fastboat armada. Was really a sight to see. Maybe it will come to a head eventually, but I don’t see it happening soon.

7

A friend in my college days (she was faculty, not a fellow student) happens to be of Persian heritage, and has a fatwa on her head thanks to the black-turbaned turds. I for one enthusiastically support Regime Change in Tehran, if for no other reason than so she can rest easier at night.

8

as I understand we are moving things around constantly and talking is cheap and seems to be done weekly daily whatever so I do not see us any closer then any other time in recent history since letting them gain so much power ?

if anything I think we would secretly back Israel to do some more sabotage etc… chip away etc…

but I do not trust what they would do as they have nothing to lose and everything to gain in starting a war

9

This is part of the big thing for Arab-Israeli reconciliation–Iran’s only friend in the region is Syria, and the main thing that lets them stay as far up the food chain as they do is that their enemies are kept fighting among themselves, the “fingers” of Guderian’s quote rather than assembling into a “fist.”

10

Does Zerohedge ever actually work out? They seem to always have something that seems like it will track, but never does.

11

26Inf- I value your opinion on this board, I find you to be intelligent on many subjects. May I ask, do you not think we need to go ahead NOW with some kind of action…BEFORE they get even stronger, bolder & crazier? What do you think needs to happen.
Genuinely curious, not being a smart ass.

12

Well, Bolton. So…

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

13

You mean all that Obam-… I mean, TAXPAYER MONEY :mad: - by the connex-load - DIDN’T buy the Iranian’s good will & cooperation?!?! :rolleyes:

14

You mean all that Obam-… I mean, TAXPAYER MONEY - by the connex-load - DIDN’T buy the Iranian’s good will & cooperation!!! ************************

NO !!!

It did not, but it was a criminal action by our President in my estimation.

15

Oh boy, more war and more immigrants.

And to think I wasted 8 years bitching about Obama.

YangGang 2020. At least I get an extra grand a month in NEETbux

I’m sick of “winning”

16

Well, you asked…

I don’t think we should have backed out of the nuclear deal with them. Not saying that it was a great deal, but we kind of left a bad taste in the mouth of the other signatories, several of whom are allies, rapidly becoming former allies under this administration. Most knowledgeable sources apparently believed that Iran was in compliance. I think President Trump’s administration was too focused on how Iran was acting in other areas such as Syria and Hezbollah.

At this point, we are on the road from being a trusted partner, to being a partner of necessity for many of our Nation’s allies.

Nonetheless, we have come to this point, and here is what I believe should happen regarding Iran and the Middle-East in general:

If we get involved in a shooting conflict with Iran, that will play right into the hands of the Russians, and the Chinese. Guarantee you the problem in Venezuela will grow by leaps and bounds. And who else in the middle-east would we be battling?

Quite frankly, everyone in the world who keeps an eye on such things knows our military is getting frayed. We have solid troops, but they are too few and too worn to take on anything else right now. The other elements of force projection 1) transport to get the troops deployed and then keep them supplied is already stretched; 3) the Navy is facing a material and personnel readiness crisis because of the op-tempo; 4) likewise the Air Force. If I know that from reading open source material so does anyone else who cares to look. Russia and China would love to see somethin cook off with Iran to get us further in the hole readiness wise so that it will take us even longer to recover.

If I were given a free hand, I would begin building the armed forces back to 1990-91 levels. That would mean an across the board tax increase. The times we are living in have become near as, if not more volitale, than they were at the height of the Cold War in my opinion.

This will take time, and we need to calm things in order to get breathing room.

To signal that our build-up was not predatory, if I was given the keys to our foreign policy, I would realign our middle-eastern commitments. Countries would have to make a choice whther they want to remain our allies or go it on their own without our aide other than for basic humanitarian needs.

To that end, Israel would have to accept the stationing of U.S. troops in sufficient numbers to maintain order in the disputed areas (until a two-state agreement is brokered) and provide a credible deterent to any Nations set on Israel’s destruction. Under my doctrine, to attack Israel would be to attack the U.S. and result in full scale war. As a result, Israel could begin to play nicer with it’s neighbors and, hopefully in a decade, we would be able to reduce our footprint.

I would go to Iran and say we had a good thing going for you, and we need to reestablish that path.

Now, I’m not a complete fool, that is pie-in-the sky dreaming.

If we need to go into Iran, we need to do it with full force and effect, no half-steps. That means that we will likely be fighting other Nation’s and taking and holding ground. That means emergency mobilization - the draft. It will be messy, it probably will expand. Otherwise, we are just going to be marching in place with no real progress for another 18 years.

The question is, do the America people have the guts for that, or will they allow the leaders to squander the lives of our youth for another decade? You can bet President Trump nor Bolton will be doing any fighting. (I won’t either for that matter.)

17

Iran has plans to attack USA targets, in the region and around the world. We have hard intelligence on this and we shared it with the USA.

Regarding the deal obama made with Iran, my friends father was the Israeli Ambassador to IAEA and he told me that the deal would give Iran the bomb 100%.

When we took 1000 pounds of documents from Iran, it became evident they had switched from an overt nuclear weapons program to a covert one. But it was still going forward.

Israel has been and is still fighting a covert war to shut down or at least slow down the program.

The correct course of action for the USA is too shown our might and also to tighten sanctions even more. Choke the country.

Riots in Iranian cities are an on going thing, the people are fed up. So make it even worse the them, they will blame the leadership and try to over throw the government. These same people if it becomes a shooting war will line up at recruiting offices to be cannon fodder.

18

Screw their oil, we’ve got more than enough to sell… In fact, we’ve got so much, my company started shutting in wells. Too much production, not enough infrastructure… Iran can suck it.

19

No. The urging to attack Iran is primarily coming from Saudi Arabia. That is why we went into Iraq and Syria. And they will want us kept in there for as many years as possible to strengthen their control over the ME.

Let’s stop being the bitch boy for Saudi royalty. When there is a direct threat we should crush it and move on. When the Saudis wet their man dresses we should laugh, tell to have at it if they want it so bad but we are staying out of it from now on.

Get off our damn knees from the Saudi dicks. Start fighting only for direct American threats and quit running around shooting whoever the Saudis point to next.

20

Realistically our need to be involved in the Middle East is inversely proportional to our capacity to produce our own oil for energy, and industrial applications.

The balance of the equation has changed in the last 10 years, but our foreign policy hasn’t caught up. It’s long overdue for a serious review.

I suspect that we could probably ignore the entire region and still survive. With that in mind I see no compelling reason to commit US forces to conflict in the area that do not affect our economic interests or security. The economic interests portion dwindles everyday, and with it the national security interests.