From a S. Korean newspaper
http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/02/04/2010020400827.html
NK already has failed, it’s simply the worlds largest labor camp.
I think the collapse of N Korea is inevitable. Once the great leader dies there will be a fight for power. My concern is whether the North will try and take the South down with it.
they devalued their currency by a factor of 100 or 1000 last year, like pouring napalm on the fire of an economy they had
I think it will fall like a house of cards, quite suddenly, such that the North govt cannot do anything to the South. It will happen too fast. Once the people realize that they have power (and from the comments in the linked article that appears to have started happening) it will mushroom very quickly.
The real question is can the south absorb the north or at least a gazillion N refugees.
Germany had to absorb the east and things were not anywhere as bad and it is stil an ongoing process there 20 years later
Excellent historical reference. South Korea is a strong economic engine in the far east, but I think that’s the $64 question - the refugees will be a B-I-G problem.
At least, 20 years ago, Reaganomics was fueling the worldwide economic boom, and West Germany was able to put East Germans to work SOMEWHERE. In this economy, that’s gonna be a whole lot tougher - even in the east, where the economy is in beter shape than ours (save for Japan).
I wouldn’t be surprised if North and South Korea reunited someday, once some of the prime players are gone and the US will be blamed for keeping them apart. When I served in Korea, the older folks were very anti-communist and they remembered the war. Although their military was very capable, they were glad to have the US there as a tripwire. I think that now their young people (like ours) aren’t really interested in history.
I have a theory, though I admit it isn’t based on any hard facts or evidence. I believe that N Korea is a puppet of China. Without the support of the Chinese, N korea would never had made this long. China uses N Korea as a distraction/ diversion to their own intensions. N Korea is a Chinese proxy. China won’t let N Korea fail.
Interesting view and I agree 100%. China can play both sides of the street, playing the “good” guy by acting as an intermediary between us and NK, while egging the Norks on to stir the pot once in a while. Just my 2 cents…
No doubt North Korea is a nice buffer that can also be used create a distraction - latest intelligence public today is rockets with range to hit US in next decade(few years). This was the thought late 90s too.
I could see this going either way, but if China has their way, they will keep North Korea just where they are - isolated, indoctrinated and just fed enough to keep alive.
North Korea is basically irrelevant anymore.
Iran is our most urgent problem but in fact our greatest enemy is China. They sit like a spider waiting for us to deteriorate from within as they plot to become #1 in the world. I fear they haven’t got long to wait…
Interesting video on a small group of journalists who were able to get inside the country and get some footage: http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/02/08/vbs.north.korea/index.html?hpt=C1
I think the question to ask before you talk about reunification is will the North Korean people be able to realize they have the power. Think about it. You have a society that is literally brain washed into thinking that their leader is a god; Infallible, completely worthy of every bit of devotion; emotional attachment, etc… I honestly think that North Korea will only be reunited with the south after a vast majority dies from starvation / disease. The problem I see is that as that majority is dying, they launch a final attack of retribution on the south.
I’ve got no inside info, but I think that’s pretty astute thinking. 
NK will stand as long as china wants it to. It is a puppet state of china after all.
interesting tid-bit
http://foxnews.mobi/quickPage.html?page=22995&content=34985953&pageNum=-1
If they disintegrate, the problem will be integrating millions of formerly communist north koreans into normal korean society. It would be like adding mexico onto the US as a few more states and letting them vote for our president. For germany it wasn’t a complete disaster, but I think it negatively affected the culture and political structure. Communist countries usually go out with a whimper, because at that point there literally isn’t any morale or economic activity left.
There’s no shortage of food or aid in the world right now.
South Korea would have to go to an extremely decentralized government.
I would agree with all of this. Despite their militant population, they must loathe their own existence and want better as human beings. I think…
But what will they do with all of those potentially free but still very lost souls?
Hopefully it will fall without a shot.
As hard as it is to believe, there are a group of psychotic leftists that support North Korea, and they organize a trip to Pyongyang every year. I saw something on Youtube. The organization is run by a Spanish communist, and even a few Americans were marching in their propaganda parade to denounce the US. They even took a trip to the JSA/DMZ, and shouted “Yankee go home”, or some such nonsense.
:rolleyes: