Venezuela coming to a head

General General Discussion
1

Venezuela looks like it’s going to kick off. If we/they’re lucky, those with the guns will decide it’s time to back another horse, and back the new guy. But the corruption and such, probably not going to happen, and thugs and tyrants always double down when put in a corner.

So, Trump admin backs new guy (Juan Guaidó) as pres of Venezuela, and makes it clear actions against US diplomats etc by Maduro’s thugs will be dealt with swiftly. Now that US does not recognize D bag officially and labeling him a criminal and or terrorist if he does not follow along, that makes it easier to justify dealing with D bag internationally, and it’s a clear challenge to him. He’s stuck between a rock and a hard place there, and his ilk only knows one way to deal with it. Apparently Rubio may have brokered this one. Russia (as well as China and Iran) however warns the US not to intervene, as they now have leverage and $ sunk into the region and don’t want to lose it. Personally, I think the line in the sand crossed was when Iran became a known player in the country, (1) but all happened under the spineless prior admin, so that’s a mess inherited:

The Rubio doctrine: U.S. recognition of new Venezuelan leader is Florida senator’s work

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article224976955.html?fbclid=IwAR27umuYvm4ybDOa0XM_pqBJVcGUWA_a20rP0-OqrItrdcyUfm5CRFK9UkU

Russia warns U.S. against military intervention in Venezuela

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-warns-u-s-against-military-intervention-venezuela-n962091

(1) https://www.m4carbine.net/showthread.php?210668-Hezbollah-and-Iran-find-new-strength-in-Latin-America&highlight=Venezuela

2

I spent much of my youth in Venezuela. I lived there when Chavez was elected. I remember the embassy and our companies giving everyone emergency plans, which thankfully weren’t needed. I saw a woman hang herself in protest outside of my building. I sincerely hope they dump Maduro.

We should definitely keep our noses out of it though. Obviously we shouldn’t have a military intervention, but our spooks need to be very careful as well, as it was their perceived(and somewhat real) intervention that cemented many moderates into the Chavista camp for a bit.

3

Did you dad work for an oil company, if so which one?

My ex-BIL was the UP’s account manager for Champlain, his job went away pretty quickly.

4

Yep. He did completions for Schlumberger.

There’s a good chance they might know each other or have a mutual friend. The expat world is pretty small.

And yeah, we were gone before much time passed.

5

Venezuela coming to a head
… on a stick…

6

Even if anti-maduro actions were completely and genuinely internal, maduro will still blame the US. That’s the chavez playbook.

7

sigh If only they had real socialism in Venezuela, none of this would have happened, amirite folks?

8

Oh absolutely. But we’re watching the natural outcome of price controls and government controlled capital interests. We don’t have to do anything. And our interference will likely prolong the revolution or at the very least have unforeseen consequences…as it has in the vast majority of instances throughout history.

9

I think we’re pretty sufficiently removed from any direct action in the Americas anymore, unless it’s like “Clear and Present Danger” covert, completely disavowable. I’ve been so S. America a few times and loved it, but it’s annoying how little Americans know about the history of our southern neighbors. Hoping this works out for the Venezuelan people without a civil war and/or thousands of bodies. It (Venezuela) has the potential to destabilize a lot of South America, especially Colombia and Central America.

10

I know a lot of people in, and from, Venezuela, and none of them believe that BS, so at least he has few in the population being manipulated by the propaganda it appears. They know who is ultimately to blame, but they also disarmed the population in 2012 following the Commie Dictator handbook 101 to assure the population can’t do anything about before complete takeover: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-18288430

Gee, never would have seen that coming!

11

As long as it remains propaganda that’s mostly true. But it’s also fair to say that the folks with the means to know Americans either by travel, language, or relatives married to Americans etc…aren’t exactly the Venezuelans that the propaganda is directed at. Those tend to be the folks who would have already left if they could afford to, or are the backbone of the opposition.

Like I said that’s a big stereotype I’m making, and I obviously don’t know the people you’re talking about, but across the population I believe it to be true.

12

You are correct. If they would have followed Alexandria Crazio-Cortez’s socialist plan for America they would not have all their problems.

13

Possible worse-before-better times coming shortly but I think it’ll be short. The “better” part, once arrived at, will be a slow uphill battle though, so much damage has been done that if the best guy in the world became president tomorrow, it would still take a decade or decades to get things back up and running right, and the reputation of the country has suffered so much that it will be even longer to again shed the “banana republic” stereotype.

I believe in the coming days or weeks Maduro will have to either ramp up seriously on repression to the point of killing Venezuelans by the truckload, or cut and run. Dollars to doughnuts he has at least one place to go where he has a fine villa ready to move in to with plenty of Venezuelan gold in the safe. Turkey, maybe. Maybe also in one of the other countries that always lend their support to leaders who are, like themselves, anti-freedom. The list of countries expressing support for Maduro is short and predictable.

Heard something about the “peaceful, democratic return to normalcy and prosperity in Venezuela”. Well, that’d be nice. Maburro may not the the legit democratically-elected president due to election shenanigans, but neither is Guaido who is basically self-appointed. That often is a bad sign, but, well, something, any damned thing really, had to be done and he can’t hardly be worse than Maduro.

I hope we stay out of it. I have a special connection to Venezuela and know it pretty well but it’s time for Venezuelans to fix, lo siento, their own mistake. Way better that it be by democratic means; second choice a lynching which I guess if the vast majority of Venezuelans see that as the next step, that’s democratic too, sorta; last choice, the World Police intervene. Some Venezuelans I know would go for this and I’ve even heard calls for it but I think most have too much pride and do see it as a Venezuelan problem they themselves need to fix. Thats’ the shortest route to a full recovery they can call their own.

I wish Oscar Perez could have been a part of this, he deserved it instead of being murdered by Maduro’s private cadre of foreign sicarios in the guise of Venezuelan NG / police. One outrage among many, but if and when there is a trial, I hope that one is not forgotten.

14

All the folks wanting to test their Civil War mettle should book a Flight and show em what’s up

15

Sweet.

It’ll be like the good old days when you could make your own Army.

I put a call out for rustlers, cut throats, murderers, bounty hunters, desperados, mugs, pugs, thugs, nitwits, halfwits, dimwits, vipers, snipers, con men, Indian agents, Mexican bandits, muggers, buggerers, bushwhackers, hornswogglers, horse thieves, bull dykes, train robbers, bank robbers, ass-kickers, shit-kickers, and Methodists.

First guy in line said he likes
“Rape, murder, arson and rape.”

16

^^^^Funniest movie ever.

17

Can’t be made today.

18

No it cannot. Today we have too many easily offended, thin skinned, non-coping, panty waisted snowflakes in society.

19

Or…go enforce the law.

20

That’s crazy talk, sir.

There are people with umpteen thousand dollars in Delta Force rifle clones, multicam, and kill lists in need to show their ass