So today I call one of the local gunshops here in Tulsa, and I am asking the guy about trading in an AR on a Kimber, and if would be best to sell the AR outright or trade it in. I already know the answer, but wanted to hear what the guy had to say. So anyway, he tells me that I would be better to sell it myself, but I knew that. Then, he tells me that the AR market is going away because nobody is buying them anymore, and I should sell it as quick as I could. He also said that alot of dealers are looking to get out of the AR market because it just isnt there.
Is this true??!!??
I have a hard time believing this. Also, this is coming from a shop that has been here 30+ years.
first being complete AR rifles like a colt 6920 or noveske n4 light…these i bel. pound for pound are the most sought after by all buyers in this market considering many well read first time AR buyers go with these, and many guys going back to the org. colts in nam seek them. I do believe this market has significantly slowed but i also bel. this market never was close to being as large as the second, and esp over the pre and post obama months.
Secondly there is the AR aftermarket parts and upgrades market which includes COMPLETE UPPERS…need i say more about demand currently in this actual market. Well i will indulge your brains for a minute: Ask yourself this question?
Compile the following shopping list of AR parts and include how long it would HONESTLY take u grab all the items without every paying 10% over msrp on the item.
There’s only 2 shops in this town that I pretty sure have been around that long. Not sure which shop you called, but I can hazard a guess. I don’t believe it because every show I go to people I know are selling out of ARs. Granted, it’s not quite the frenzy it was around election day, but I’m still not buying it. Now it may be that this particular shop has their stuff priced a bit too high and nobodys buying because of better deals elsewhere.
The market seems to have softened a bit here in SW PA, ARs are staying on shelves much longer. My dealer said he started to feel it slacking In march and scaled back his orders accordingly. This whole AR bubble bothered me, especially with colts. 3 gun and tactical shooting doesn’t seem to be real big around here and colt made ARs especially the 6920 were a hard thing to find around here well before the recent madness. I didn’t see many at shows. Now there seem to be alot of them and the shows are full, every dealer hawking the “rare” 6920, which I have never seen in such abundance, now with much inflated price. My dealer was hard pressed to get one from his distributor before. However in the last 6 months he has been able to order and receive more 6920s than he has in the last 5 years. I think they were selling in the $1500 range
Basically he is full of shit to put it nicely. Was this a Fudd shop? Or did he just awaken from a coma? Manufacturers are still backlogged and stores still can’t get enough. I thought that things would have died down but the buying frenzy is still going on as far as I can see.
My wife went to Scottsdale Gun Club a couple of days ago to pick up my LMT lower and there was a 3 hour wait for the range. She said that there was a lot of activity in overall sales area and they had (1) Glock in the sale case. I’ve seen that sale case and it was stacked pretty deep in October.
Where I am at, also S.W. PA (Beaver County) the AR supply dwindled out for maybe 4-6 weeks at the worst. Prices got jacked up, but if you had the money… you could (and still can) drive to Rochester PA and visit Tim at Browns Armory and grab a CDD/BM at any time. He also is a class 3 dealer and does have a couple full auto versions ready to sale for the cost of equal to a new good quality compact car.
Ammo… thats a tough one around here. Most of what I have been shooting has been from various online purchases. It seems that now days if you can .223/5.56 to your house for $0.50 a round, your doing ok. Makes me sick. Heck, even 7.62x39 is getting close to $0.45 a round at many places… if you can get it.
I have a decent supply of each, but at this point I’m leary of using it up. I can’t afford to replace it all!
That guy was dead on. If you are planning on selling one, for a premium, you better get to it. Once the backorders show up, you are only going to be selling used gear. Of course this is dependent on what DC is saying over the next few months.
Excellent point. Thats kinda what I have been seeing as well.
Yes, you are correct. Without naming names, this is the shop in midtown, and they have several AR’s in stock. Mostly S&W’s I believe, and I thought the prices were a little higher than most others. I have bought several handguns from this store over the years, and they have always been very reasonable. In fact, I just bought an M&P there a few weeks back.
I agree with another poster that he just wanted to sell a Kimber. I have a hard time believing that there is no more market.
Market is still there but fading. I’ve been watching prices trend down over the last 6 weeks.
Yes, manufacturers have a huge backlog, but much of that is from guys like my FFL/dealer friend – he’s got 100 LMTs on order, but he only really needs 20. The other 80 were insurance, and since he doesn’t have to pay for them until they ship, why not?
I myself had at least 6 LMT uppers on order at various places. When I got what I wanted, I cancelled the ones at Quanitco, at Grant’s place, etc. Nothing personal to those shops, but I just wanted to make sure that I could get one from where-ever. Now 5 LMT upper orders have “disappeared” due to my cancellations and I’m sure I’m not the only one that had multiple orders out there.
This is what happens in every bubble. As a great business mentor of mine said – “Billions of dollars in backlog can disappear in a single phone call. Just ask Boeing”.
I don’t think the bubble has popped yet, but I’m amazed at people who don’t believe that there is any bubble at all. Just like people were buying multiple properties because “The housing market just keeps gaining value!” there are people who are hoarding ridiculous quantities of AR items. While this is an easier market to “time” than the housing market because of the factors that contribute to it, it’s still not the endless money pool that some seem to believe.
I think those who have decided to use this panic as an investment vehicle should set a target profit and sell at that amount when they can.
I’m not saying this as an endorsement of the strategies of the fear mongers or profiteers that we’ve seen: I hate that they’ve artificially driven up values on so many items.
While it’s tangential, I think another thing for people to consider is that if another ban is enacted, it doesn’t necessarily have to behave like the last one. Why rely on your enemies to fight a new battle with old tactics? Specifically, I mean that pre-ban items might not be legally transferable under new legislation. We’ve already seen this in some states, so why don’t more people consider it as a possibility at the federal level?
Someone who’s carrying debt so that he can sit on 1,000 PMAGs may think he’ll turn a sweet profit once the ban years come. What if he can’t move them before it becomes illegal to do so? While I realize that’s not likely (such impending legislation would just create another, larger panic), it shouldn’t be considered out of the question if someone is attempting such a strategy. And if a new ban doesn’t allow transfers, banned items won’t have the years to keep climbing in value like they did last time.
Conversely, what if the ban doesn’t come? This is what I mean about the difficulty of timing: at what point does the PMAG hoarder decide to finally sell off his stock? And what price will people be willing to pay for his older PMAGS when there are the M revisions out, or other new items? Between the age of the mags and the cost of trying to parcel out the lot for shipping, some of these hoarders will lose money if they don’t move their stock before manufacturer supply catches up with demand again. Then they’ll need a ban.
Excellent point regarding the backorders and I’m sure it’s been extremely prevalent. As you point out, this most likely will result in a situation where the amount of unfilled demand does not decrease in a linear manner relative to supply, but rather exponentially.
That guy is definitely full of shit. I’d venture to say most gun store owners are former used car salesmen, uninformed about what they’re selling and will say anything to get you to purchase their slow moving products. I had some store owner hawking a DPMS at me as the “end all, be all” AR, better than Colt.:rolleyes: I’m glad to see AR prices coming down, I only wish ammo will eventually do the same.
The gun store that I was in on Monday had no less the 10 AR’s on the wall. Different brands with prices starting at $899. I did not look to see which brands were commanding what prices.
Most of the folks there were looking at handguns. There was no mad rush on the black guns.
A shop here in Chandler, AZ had 2 DD M4’s on the rack for $2400 each when I was in a few days ago. And S&W stripped lowers were only $299. Such bargains!
