A group of us was bouncing the idea of mandatory evacuation in case of SHTF (of any type) scenario the other night, when I proposed to evacuate with neighbors, in a convoy to a common location outside the disaster area, then separate to individual fallback positions VS staying with the group to one fall back position, and having family and friends from other areas, meet there. Short or long term group consolidation. The idea being strength in numbers.
The plan would have to be in place with multiple redundancies built in and considerations for, but not limited to: Timing, notification, communication, vehicle break down, food, water, fuel, weapons, ammo, rally points (Primary/Alternate) for folks in and out of the disaster area for folks not at home, multiple alternate routes for phased/situational Evacs, common vs separate, fall back positions, convoy to state line, then separate, etc… At one point based on time and type of SHTF event, primary routes would be impassable (Think Katrina) and alternate routes would become primary, etc…this provided quite the discussion.
My final thought was, ideally, to evacuate with like minded and equally trained gun enthusiast, members of M4Carbine. Setting up Evacuation groups by state, similar to training groups, maybe falling back to other M4C members domiciles outside the disaster zone/state, etc…then those groups members can brain storm there own Evac plan/goal (group vs individual, once separated from the group).
Many of these types of Threads have been discussed before. What are your thoughts on an M4C Evac Groups?
I think it’s a great idea, especially for the area you live in. In NV we don’t have any natural disasters to speak of so it’s a little off topic for me but if you make it this far we’ve got a couple of spare bedrooms.
Roger, I have had a lot of thoughts along exactly the same lines as you. The biggest fly in the ointment that I foresee is the lifeboat concept.
If you have a lifeboat with supplies for 25, what happens when you have 60 people climb in? Not nearly as big a deal for a hurricane evac up up the coast, but if it’s a really big one, aka TEOTWAWKI…?
I think you have the best idea for the situation. A multi-family group, with lots of skillsets and resources, is a really viable plan.
My biggest worry has been who gets to look your buddy in the eye, and tell him he can’t bring his buddy? Or brother-in-law? Because there simply is no room, other than to strap them onto the luggage rack, and that’s full?
Which is why disasters suck, and we pray every night for the safety of our families.
Thanks brother, and the same to you if the Yellowstone caldera erupts, of course if that happens, we all will be on the way, to our own version of “The Road”.
I hear you. That subject was discussed as well. Who ever decides to be included will be up to you, depending on yours+their resources, if they have a vehicle, what they have to bring to the table and IF…they could keep there mouth shut (Excluding immediate family, but I have a few worthless blood relations I’d leave behind in a heart beat;)) OPSEC would be paramount. If the whole neighborhood found out, you’d be shooting neighbors, just to leave your neighborhood. In my area, if one slip of the tongue, even in jest, got out to the little old ladies in tennis shoes, the whole friggin HOA would be notified, which would mean a preplanned, O"Dark 30 departure, would be in order. It may be beneficial to include the “worthless” as a potential food source once my/our stock has been depleted.
The more I read, contemplate and plan, the more I think that the small family trying to make it on their own in most dire scenarios is a pipe dream. We all here want to focus on gear and guns, and while I think those are important, your political skills, in a lot of these scenrios, are going to be more determinate of your outcome than your ninja skills. The ability to form coalitions and cohesive groups will be more important you ability to shoot a small group. It won’t be the gun you carry that will save your bacon, it is the number of guns backing you up that will be determinate.
And the bad news, we all know our neighbors far less than we did 20 years ago.
any plan definitely requires close scrutiny and consideration… it’d really suck to get roped into helping more open mouths than you intended, or ending up linked with people with differing priorities than you. i, for one, would not have it in me to just turn people away, essentially, depending on the circumstances, sentencing them to death or worse. the Christ in me wouldn’t allow it. but if they never know where you are to come ask for help, you don’t have to turn them down.
i’ve been thinking about setting up a local network of guys/families with guns and training, for the purpose of (hopefully never having to) linking up if the S ever did HTF, for a couplefew years now. in the event of any kind of collapse, security will be very important. a LOT of people will put their usual/previous sensibilities on hold and have no problem stealing/killing/burning/looting for sake of their own. and that’s otherwise “normal” people- think what the normally unstable types will be willing to do…
our M4C regional training groups are a good place to start… guys you train with on a regular basis- guys you know have guns and ammo and hopefully are of like mind and trustworthy.
I would have to say, 1st, self/family/friends/convoy preservation. Every resource diverted from the group (individual families included) will lessen the groups odds at surviving. I am a Christian as well, but I am a practical one. You cannot save everyone. You can only help those you initially plan to save and escape with. Make a plan and stick with it. When in a Survival/Evac group, the responsibility to sustain the group, rest with the individuals within it. Until the situation resolves itself or your group has grown large enough to provide security, and other resources to provide for others, stick with the initial plan and repel all others seeking to take from the group, until the group’s goal has been met. Failing to do so, will disrupt the group. They (others in your group) may decide that your ideals of survival, no longer coincides with the group (Your actions endangering the security and resources the group), and you may be asked to separate and fend for yourself.
What are your mobility plans? Where I live someone changing a tire or a minor car accident during our 4 hour “rush hour” destroys highway traffic, a complete evac would not even be possible in my opinion, the roads would be parking lots and people would run out of gas/abandon vehicles making the situation worse (if that’s possible)
My evacuation plans, although not complete, depends completely on accurate info, time, opportunity, and preparation. Obvious primary evac route will be parking lots IF you wait too long, then it’s too late. That’s why you should consider multiple routes in order to successfully escape the affected area. If someone is away at the mall, work, etc…a plan to meet at a rally point, vs meeting back at the ranch, is also something that should be considered as well. Is there a BOB in every vehicle to include a firearm, food, water, flashlight, spare batteries for everything to include a cell phone? During Katrina, folks held out to the last minute hoping for the best, until they were forced to relocate by mandatory evacuation. Those that chose to ride it out, were left to there own devices, whether prepared or not. If the individual home is properly prepared, then staying in place is also something to consider. But again, if I stay or go, my plan doesn’t include feeding the masses who didn’t properly prepare.
I agree. I have been trying to get my home prepared little by little, my own scenarios for the evac have always gotten me stuck at some point, where I go back to the drawing board.
That’s why I am reworking a split plan, stay or leave. If leaving, then convoy, with like minded, squared away neighbors and/or folks from M4C. Strength in numbers and survival percentage goes up if you decide to convoy.
it’ll probably be easier to get people in FL or on the gulf coast to follow thru on something like this than it will be in some other areas. you get hit with hurricanes often enough that most people are probably aware and may already have some kind of plans.
in other areas… you’d probably just get a WTF? look.
keeping the plan, and the number of people aware of it limited would seem to be the hard part. someone would want to seem like a hero to someone and say that they could “come along”. any additions like that should be up to the group, not one individual or family… and then the newbie needs to prep to get up to speed.
make a list of the minimum that people NEED to bring, and what extras are nice to bring if there’s time and space. make it a checklist with qtys per person.
come up with YOUR list, you might post it here for comment, share it with the members of your group for comment and then distribute the final list.
give everyone 6 months or so to get stuff squared away…and then do a trial run.
granted, it will probably be in nice weather and the roads won’t be clogged with other people getting out of dodge. so the trial run should be EASIER, but with everyone doing it together the first time might not be as easy as you think.
not a problem. that’s what the trial run is for, to find problems and things that need to be done differently. make notes about the run. what worked and what did’nt. what could be done better.
Outstanding Post RogerinTPA, we’re in Pinellas. One of the things we saw during the 4 back to back to back to back hurricanes(1 a week) several years ago was the lack of fuel movement into Florida, and the southeast; moral of the story, unless you can get far out of the area, you’re going to get stuck at some point whether you’re in a group on solo unless you’re driving a fuel tanker. Of course Pinellas different than TPA, in that, we’re near the water and TPA is 45 minutes inland, Pinellas has 3 main roads into the mainland, once the weather gets blowing they are underwater and that’s that.
We’re really aware of and have respect for the weather and how it goes here. We were in North Miami for Andrew definitely have a place built like a ‘sh*t brick house’ to stay in. Interesting points as to running with a group vs running solo vs running vs not running. We’re near the beach so, ‘not running’ is our only choice unless they know 72+ hours in advance we won’t be able to get out of here. Outstanding food for thought. Thanks Roger, lots to think about!
From what I know about other East Coasters fixer is right, East Coasters Generally don’t take it that serious.
Good advice, and we have plans to do that very thing, once several list (personnel, packing, alt comms, etc…) have been solidified. Get the call, work you family support plan to get to the group. Grab your “go” bags and head to the rally point. Eventually, I’d like to run some no notice drills that end at a theme or national park to work in some family fun, bond the group, and knock the seriousness off the drill and get some steaks on the grill as an incentive.
