my experience with bolt breakage is limited to crappy/unknown bolt manufacturers. i don’t think i’ve broken a single bolt since switching to quality bolt makers. the two biggest things you can do to avoid having a broken bolt, in addition to using a quality bolt, like LMT, colt, or BCM, is to replace your cam-pin every 5k and to keep it clean and well juiced with an LP (lube, preservative).
most bolt breakage occurs at the lugs and cam hole. every bolt i’ve broken/seen broken has broke at these two places, IIRC. they break at the cam hole because of wear creating play between the bolt and cam-pin- this extra play allows for extra jarring during action, which can create cracks that eventually snap the bolt in half. the lugs break due to cracks that generally form from micro putting behind the lugs- keeping it soaked in LP, generally requiring keeping it CLEAN, prevents the pitting from starting to begin with. using an LMT bolt, which has radiused lugs, further preventing pitting and adding a bit of spring-tension to the equation, in my opinion, further prevents lug breakage.
as to expected life- who knows. every bolt has it’s own grain structure and fit in it’s host action. a bolt may be destined to break after 5k, and no amount of effort will prevent it. this is why HPT/MPI combination is important- it weeds out most of the bolt destined to premature failure. a bolt SHOULD last the 20k hoped-for service life of any weapon, but PM is imperative to this… and, once a bolt has over probably 15k on it, it should be checked for headspace periodically to prevent losing the gun entirely. bolt life is also going to depend heavily on how the weapon is used- even a complete piece of shit bolt will probably go 30k+ if the weapon is only fired 1,200 rounds a year, even more so if those 1,200 are slow-fired.
i’m not sure how many bolts i’ve broken, but it was a pretty common thing to have happen once upon a time. gun-show and mail-order catalog bolts generally didn’t last all that long. i also shot a lot more, and did a lot less PM, back then. i eventually figured out that Colt bolts lasted longer- in fact, they didn’t seem to break at all. later still, i learned just what exactly the TDP was and how to apply it, and i’ve not used a non-HPT/MPI bolt since… i’ve also kept my guns a little cleaner, and replace cam-pins at 5ish K… i can’t recall breaking a bolt in the last 4ish years, since getting better educated about these things. as i said, i don’t currently shoot as much as i once did, but i still have at least two bolts that currently have between 10-15k, and don’t have any plans to replace them. they’ve each/all been through 2-3 cam-pins by now, and are cleaned after at least every other use, and coated in a lubricating steel preservative.