M&P15R Cost-Benefit Analysis?

AR/M4 Beyond 5.56/.223
1

I keep hearing over and over again that the M&P15R is a great training weapon / plinker due to the fact that 5.45 is so much cheaper than 5.56. This may well have been true many months ago, but more recently the prices have slowly begun to even out and I’m starting to think that this whole thing is now a bust. So, I decided to run some very basic numbers.

If you shop around, you can buy a brand new S&W in 5.45 for around $950 (probably even cheaper by the time you read this). Following the recommendations on this site, at a minimum one should also upgrade to an H3 buffer and install a BCM extractor upgrade kit, bringing the total price to around $990.

In comparison, you can buy a brand new Colt, BCM, or DD rifle in 5.56 for about $1,150. All of these are ready to go out of the box and require no additional functionality upgrades.

Assuming this is one’s first rifle, between the rifle chambered in 5.45 and the rifle chambered in 5.56 you’re only saving about $160.

Since the assumed motive in this situation for buying this rifle is to save money, I’m also assuming that one would buy cheap ammo. At AIM Surplus right now, you can buy Silver Bear ammo in 5.45 for about $0.225 a round and Wolf ammo in 5.56 for $0.2495 a round.

What does that $160 in initial savings equate to? You would have 711 more rounds to work with if you went with 5.45 rifle instead of a 5.56 rifle.

If you already own a 5.56 rifle, the price of the 5.45 rifle would have equated to 3,967 more rounds of ammo in 5.56 you could have purchased otherwise.

What about cost savings if you fired, say, 30,000 rounds of 5.45? For the cost of that many rounds of 5.45, you could have fired 27,324 rounds of 5.56.

I could go further, but I’ll stop there.

Basically, what this tells us is that, unless you’re running a school that issues these rifles as part of the curriculum and you have some very, very high round counts, the savings are relatively negligible on an individual level.

I think most people are recognizing this already and I expect S&W to cease production of this weapon in a few years. This would certainly explain why S&W hasn’t created more variants chambered in 5.45 and have instead added to their line of variants chambered in 5.56.

The verdict? In my humble opinion, stick with 5.56 and buy yourself a nice Colt, BCM, or DD instead.

Thoughts?

2

I think that since the goal is cost savings, you need to consider the numbers with the cost of surplus ammo. It makes a difference at $0.148 per round shipped. Still comes down to each user’s intended use. I have way more of the surplus 5.45 than anything else, and 90% of it actually cost me even less than $0.148, some of it less than half the cost you’re quoting above for the Silver Bear. FWIW, I bought most of it due to shooting AK’s, so this is another situation where it makes sense to have an AR chambered for 5.45.

3

Surplus is still $150-160 or so a can.

I’ve never bought Wolf or Silver Bear and never will.

My M&P15R upper cost around $600 IIRC. Came with the extractor upgrade out of the box.

I recently conducted a ~3000 round test of a 5.45 related product and the total cost to me was about the same as if I had ordered 1000 rounds of 5.56 such as M193.

The upper “paid for itself” within about 1500 rounds assuming 5.56 cost at $400 per K (which is what the cost was when I last crunched the numbers a few months ago).

4

They also sell just an upper, might need to add that into the equation.

5

It’s sort of silly to make the comparison that you’re making. You’re comparing corrosive crap Russian surplus ammo with M193. Of course, if you compare the price of crap ammo with good ammo, the analysis will fail because the argument is illogical.

6

I was comparing non-corrosive ammunition. I should have factored that into my argument… if you want to use corrosive ammo, there will be significant cost savings.

This is a more valid argument, but I was comparing the whole rifle, not just the upper. I should have made that distinction.

7

Silly? :rolleyes:

Paper doesn’t care what goes through it. Or do you use M193 for serious social purposes?

And frankly, I don’t think much of M193. Or Silver Bear. Or Wolf.

I took my 5.45 carbine to a 600 yard match last month and was shooting about 3-5 MOA. With iron sights and non-FF handguards.

Can’t do that with M193, the BC is nowhere near that of the Russian surplus. It goes subsonic before 600 yards. 7N1 is supersonic to 800.

Feel free to exclude my argument because it doesn’t agree with your preconceived notions of what “should be”. I’m done here.

8

I’m not excluding your argument. I think you’ve raised some very good points.

In fact, all of these responses have made me rethink various aspects of my argument, which is the reason I started the thread in the first place: to get your thoughts. :slight_smile:

9

Like I said before, it truly comes down to each individual’s use. For some, it’s not worth it. For me, I’d have bought another AR upper anyway (haha!) so I bought the M&P15R upper. It really can save a lot of money for some people. For those that don’t shoot much it may not be worth it. I’ve shot over 10k rds. in the past two years, and for me the math justifies it.

I should be saying that it’s the worst idea for everybody…help keep the demand for the cheap stuff down and make it even cheaper :stuck_out_tongue:

10

Good to hear. But as krichbaum says, don’t buy it, let us have the ammo. :smiley:

11

Good copy! I’m still considering one, but I’m going to see how the ammo situation turns out over the next 9 months before doing so. But until then I will definitely help you keep the prices down. :slight_smile:

12

If you buy just the upper, you will need to change to the heavy hammer spring that comes with the upper. This is to help set off the hard primers of the surplus ammo. And as far as the price of ammo most of my stockpile was purchased when it was about 5 to 9 cents per round. It was bought for my AK74 but it doesn’t eat that much so it can share with my new AR.:smiley:

13

One cost aspect you forgot was a rear sight; the M&P15R doesn’t come with one from the factory. If you put on the Troy that the M&P15A comes with standard, you’re looking at another $140 – or about $1040 total at the best prices I’ve found for an M&P15R. This compared to the price of a standard M&P15A from G&R at $850.

14

A couple of things.

If it’s your first or only rifle, it needs to be a quality 5.56 gun. Period, full stop. Parts and ammo availability, institutional and public knowledge of potential issues and wear/replacement cycles, etc., make it foolish to consider anything else. For your second/third/sixth/fourteenth rifle, however, it may be worthwhile to get a little creative.

Just for the record, I do use M193 for social use, in my primary work gun. I have also used M855, and I was never concerned that I was going to die because my ammo was lacking.

My experience is that the numbers used in the original post are not remotely accurate. Also, so far my has run a humble 570 rounds, out of the CP mags, with a grand total of one malfunction. With no mods to the internals or the mags. I’m running 12 mags, and the mag that had the malf has since run several times with no problems.

For purposes of argument, I’m going to assume that the price of the guns is equal, and for simplicity, it’s $1000. Obviously, the specific set up will cause the cost to vary. I’m using $1K because I need a number to work with, and I don’t think that figure will be too controversial.

I can have Russian 7N1 surplus delivered to my doorstep from Aim Surplus for $330/2160, or 15.3 cents per round. Since this is a current service round, the appropriate comparison is M193 or M855. AIM also has the Centurion 5.56 (loosely a M193 equivalent) for $349.90/1000, or 34.9 cents a round. This is before shipping. I’m estimating at least $10 (conservatively) for shipping, so let’s call it $360/1000 or 36 cents a round.

So, 7N1 is $153/1000, and M193 (roughly) is $360/1000 (best case). I’m saving 21.7 cents per round (minimum). 1000/.217 tells me that after 4609 rounds, THE GUN IS FREE. Given the higher cost of most 5.56, it’s really sooner. That’s right, a little over two cases/four cans of 5.45, and the difference in the cost of ammo has paid for the gun.

Yes, this is comparing corrosive to non corrosive, but both are standard military issue rounds. Actually, I’m using something less expensive than M193 for my 5.56 sample, so, again, the 4609 number is actually lower.

There are a lot of reasons not to own a 5.45. Questionable long term ammo availability, overseas production, odd ball caliber, corrosive ammo, different mags, getting divorced for buying another gun, etc. However, assuming that you shoot a couple thousand plus rounds a year, the economics are in favor of the 5.45.

I’ve only got 570 rounds through mine, so I’ve got a little over 4K to go before mines free. I tend to agree with the original poster in that I think that S&W will stop production due to lack of sales.

15

My reasoning-

5.45 upper- $600
5.45 ammo- $310 for 2,160 rounds (AIM- today)
5.56 ammo- $720 for 2,000 rounds Prvi/$600 for Wolf

Price difference- $290 per 2000 for Wolf, and $410 for Prvi

Which means that around 4,000 rounds fired I have paid for the upper if I normally shoot Wolf, and around 3,000 rounds if I normally shoot Prvi. Anything after that and the price difference is essentially right back in my pocket.

So I save money, and put no wear on my “go-to” barrel while training the same manipulations with virtually idential recoil and trajectory (at the distances I do high-density training), and all I have to do is wash my gun out well after I shoot.

Makes sense to me.

16

You didn’t research that much before you posted it, did you justin_247? FTS has already pointed out your incredible lapse in ignoring the cost of surplus ammo and I’m telling here and now, I did not need the H3 buffer nor the extractor upgrade kit. Ask FTS, he shot my 5.45.

17

Lebowski, I do not know how your upper came but I know that after seeing/working with a half dozen or so and speaking on a fairly regular basis with a guy who’s shot out 2 of them so far, most need a heavier buffer. That’s not to say that they won’t run with a car buffer - but if they’re still throwing cases 12-15 feet with a 9mm buffer…well…

But as I said, I don’t know your upper, and if it runs great, more power to you…same with the mags.

18

To me this makes no sense. Surplus ammo may be gone by then, and that’s the whole reason for buying the 5.45 in the first place.

1K rounds of 5.45 surplus is $140. 1K rounds of 5.56 seems to be approximately $350 on average, so every thousand rounds you shoot you save $200 or so.

An upper pays for itself after 3K rounds, a complete rifle pays for itself after 5K rounds. After that, it’s just savings.

To me, it seems a rather simple cost benefit analysis. If you shoot a lot, jump on it and stock up on a crap ton of ammo while its cheap, wait 9 months and you may have missed the boat.

19

On thing that’s kept me away from trying the 5.45 thing is accessorizing the darn thing. Adding in sights, rails, grips, stocks, optics and whatnot make the payoff a lot slower. It still pays for itself, but not as quick. And if I’ve got to put a bunch of it on a credit card to get it built, it’s a bit of a false economy. If you’ve got the cash to invest in the hardware and ammo all at once, you’re ahead, but if you tend to piece things together over time (like I’m stuck doing), I don’t think there’s as much advantage.

Unfortunately, I don’t burn through enough ammo fast enough to make a large initial investment pay off very quickly.

The flip side of this, of course, is that I could be doing twice as much shooting for the same cost in the meantime, so it would sort of “self-accelerate” its own payoff.

20

Cost-Benefit Analysis aside, I really don’t see anything wrong with owning a weapon that will shoot your enemy’s ammo.:smiley: