The AR15 platform has been the most successful rifle in U.S. History. Not only has it had an unprecedented 50+ year run as the standard rifle for the U.S. Military which is longer than any other service rifle in U.S. History. In addition it has also been by far the most successful center fire semi-automatic rifle in U.S. history. It is the default standard now in civilian world to buy an AR if one wants a home defense firearm which is more capable than a pistol. The poll is how much longer do you think the AR15 will remain the “top dog” of American rifles.
For this poll work under the assumption that gun laws will remain similar to what they are today.
I listed this poll in decades and a vote for a particular decade will signify when the AR will be overtaken by the “next American rifle”
I said 2030s as a conservative estimate. There hasn’t really been a revolutionary change in firearms since the invention of the assault rifle, and it doesn’t appear that there will be, or that many people even really care if there is, any time soon. In its 50 year history, no new design has in any way eclipsed the AR. In terms of technology, while there certainly has been improvements and modifications made to rifles since the 60s, we’re still in the same generation of technology we were when the first AR-15s were sent off to Vietnam. None of the bullpups or so-called next generation of assault rifles has in anyway proven to be a vast advancement over the current crop of rifles. Until they can create a rifle that is lighter, smaller, less expensive, more reliable, and shoots a round that is smaller but deadlier than the current ones, I don’t see the AR going anywhere.
As soon as another rifle becomes the USA frontline weapon we will see the AR15 star dim quite a bit.
A new weapon would capture the publics attention and imagination. It will be in all the video games. The massive federal contract will have an instant profit motive for vendors like Magpul, VLTOR, DD, and whomever else to invest in R&D toward accessories and such.
In the absence of a large federal contract and adoption all these new guns are hamstrung by high cost, which will stop them from ever being capable of handing equal standing with the AR15.
Example: These days you can score a Colt for $1100 dollars. That same Colt can stand toe to toe with a $2500 SCAR, $1900 TAVOR, $1400 ARX, $1900 ACR, etc etc etc…So why pay for the more expensive weapon other than novelty?
I Voted 50 more yrs… Why, I like the number 50, LOL So another 50 gets us to another number I like, so on and so forth, you get the idea…
However, as soon as I cast my vote, Then I really wondered about my estimate both because of ALOT of my buddies are getting into the 10, wanting the Bigger Punch/Hit that a
larger caliber has… NOW if we throw these into the count? Then I’ll stand by my 50 more yrs., but you still have to wonder about it, what with ALL the NEW Cool BullPups:cool: out there…?
Are they lighter? I Don’t know but, I do know, IF this is a criteria, then going lighter it IS going to Cost more money, just like it already does with M4s, it’s just how it works…
Less expensive? See above, don’t see it happening, especially when they’re going to bigger calibers.
Smaller? They’re definitely smaller/shorter from the ones I’ve seen, never have had the privilege of holding one yet though.
Also from what I have both seen and read, their reliability is every bit as good as a regular M4…?
I hate to say this, but I think as our military rifle technology continues to advance, there’s more of a risk that the government will try to restrict civilian sale of those weapons. I have a feeling the AR15 will be around a lot longer than the introduction of the next GI rifle simply because it will easier to buy and will have more options available.
It’s going to be tough to beat, for a few reasons:
Any new rifle is going to have some IP protection, proprietary parts.
The open source of the AR platform means prices will always be low for a given feature set. Modularity, weight, cartridge, various roles…
Many of the features that would be improvements to the AR design are already pretty mature options for the AR.
I’m not saying new products won’t come out. It’s just going to be very difficult to unseat the AR as a platform, especially when you start looking at development costs and economies of scale. There are very large fixed costs that will go into a new rifle, that will be competing with a platform across multiple manufacturers sourcing a lot of common parts from various fabricators who have long paid off their development costs. In addition, any new product for the AR is a small investment compared to developing a rifle from scratch.
I don’t see the assault rifle market changing much or at all until caseless ammunition becomes viable. IMO the current AR-15 is about as advanced as an assault rifle is going to become.
It’ll be around for a very long time. The last thing anyone is going to really invest money in at this point is small arms. They’ll likely invest in more drones and so forth than what rifle an individual soldier has.
The AK has been around since the late 40s. It’s not going anywhere despite showing its age.
They try so hard to dethrone the AR. Like the OICW, the SCAR, the XM-8, and who knows what else. But the AR keeps going because at the end of the day it is more accessible, lightweight, and not as complicated as all those tv shows tried to paintit as being. The .50 cal is also really old. Not going anywhere.
And even if they come out with some far out rifle, I’ll still keep mine.
I wouldn’t worry either way
Since, historically, most “modern” rifles have been based on military patterns (which were themselves based on earlier civilian models), and with the government’s propensity for wanting to ban “military style” weapons, I don’t see many replacements for the AR-15 platform coming down the pike…
Just look at history: the 1911 is over 100 years old now and people still swear by it.
You can still buy a copy of a Colt Peacemaker, or a Civil War era muzzle loader, for Pete’s Sake.
Manufacturers will continue to innovate, and you may one day buy an AR with a polymer receiver that is stronger than steel, but I don’t think the rifle will lose its popularity unless some draconian legislation makes the mere possession of one a chore.
I think America’s armed forces will continue to use the AR in it’s different military designations for quite some time. They have tested other rifles but nothing has replaced it yet. With talks of scaling down troop numbers etc. I don’t see us spending more money on another rifle. Then again someone may come out with something better tomorrow but I doubt it.
It’s gonna be a long time… sadly, I think the most likely scenario to end it is Hillary, Feinswine, & Co will pass another AWB with no grandfathering or sunset.
Agreed, with the exception of the change from bolt action to semi-auto (1903A3 to M1 Garand) every change in front line weapon has been accompanied by a change in ammunition.
Until something comes along that is revolutionarily better that 5.56 we’ll continue to soldier on with an adequate delivery system for that projectile. There are evolutionarily better systems, but none so much improved that it’s worth scrapping what we already have in order to adopt. (Parenthetically, I’m rather surprised still that we went from a rifle to a carbine as standard issue, but that does reflect common engagement ranges on today’s battlefield.)
