Going to be an interesting couple of years if this actualy takes off.
Interested Vendors, in FBO:
ISRAEL WEAPONS INDUSTRUIES (I.W.I) LTD.
LEITNER-WISE DEFENSE, INC. GLOCK INC hum…
ACCURATE TOOL & MANUFACTURING COMPANY, INC. AREND ENGINEERING COMPANY ??? Interesting, but looks like they will need a major company as a partner.
CRITICAL DIMENSIONS LLC SHARPS RIFLE COMPANY ???
Other companies expected:
Berretta
Colt (obviously)
FN
H&K
Knight’s Armament
Remington
Robinson (without a LARGE Partner they have little chance)
Styer (although the spec’s make this a long shot)
The M4 has had a real knack for winning competitions in the past. The simplicity of the design lends to really good durability. Guns like the G36, SG55x, and FNC just werent up to the challenge for a variety of reasons
Though, these new guns that have been popping up were literally built from the ground up to replace the M4, because everyone wants a piece of the largest carbine contract in the world.
I’d be really surprised if the M4 can weather the storm of the SCAR/HK416/ARX160/ACR this time around. It’s definitely got a tough fight ahead.
There are also political factors. The Army knows everyone sees their procurement process as a joke. That alone could motivate someone high up to want to get a new carbine just to save face. The fact that literally everyone thinks the Army will stick with the M4 might just make the Army not choose the M4.
A couple of things stood out. 1. Per the article they are going to allow the M-4 to compete/baseline the test. In earlier reports they were not. 2. Only large ISO 9001 companies need apply. They want a company that can turn out at least 6,000 per month.
Concurrently the RFP for a BCG product improvement is also out.
As sure as I am that the SCAR and other such advanced capability rifles are great guns, they’re all still 5.56 carbines. Is ANYTHING in 5.56 going to be so demonstrably better than the M4 that it justifies replacing all M4s?
I think that depends entirely on how the M4 performs in this new battery of tests.
If this test had been conducted 7 years ago, the M4 would easily trounce the G36/XM8, AUG, 55x and FNC. We know this because it has many times over in several solicitations, all while becoming the official tool of high speed types the world over.
The game has changed a bit since then though in terms of features and design elements, and you can bet FN, HK and Beretta have done everything possible to ensure their guns don’t lose to the M4 in a direct head to head comparison.
In the past, guns were made seemingly in a vacuum, but these days carbines are made with the sole purpose of knocking the M4 off its perch.
If the M4 falls short even remotely, expect the largest more vocal protest from competitors we’ve ever seen. The lawsuits will be flowing like crazy, because it isn’t only about winning. Imagine being Beretta and having to market the ARX160 after being dubbed a loser to the M4.
This selection process is going to make the XM9 trials seems civil in comparison.
In the event that a new weapon is chosen, I propose the following. A special NFA amnesty is set up whereby the M4 and M16’s being replaced are transferred to the CMP and then allowed to be sold to individuals with military veterans receiving first opportunities.
All sales will go through a local class III dealer in your area and personnel must not be otherwise prohibited. Part of the money will go back to the military as well as the CMP.
I agree. However the end result is that they’re all still 5.56 carbines. At what point does less maintenance or greater MTBF numbers warrant replacing a legacy system? 10%? 20%? It has to be at a point where the decreased operating costs overcome the capital cost of replacing every M4 in the Army.
Could a savvy manufacturer leverage increased lethality of a new cartridge along with decreased maintenance costs? I think it’s a better pitch, even if it means an additional capital cost of new ammunition lines or factories to pump out the millions of rounds needed to equip everyone.
What is the conservative estimate on cased telescoping ammunition?
I cant help but think what ever they choose will turn out to be the 2nd shortest lived combat arm suffering the same fate has the M-14.
